View Full Version : Are you following the gas futures?
zoomnbyu
07-17-2008, 11:22 AM
Over the last week or so natural gas futures prices have dropped a decent hunk. As of this morning we're at $11.02 a decatherm, from over $13. Anyone think we'll get under $10? Anyone going to increase their dryer times if it does? I think I'm planning on leaving mine at 6 min/qtr.
BMWHD3060
07-17-2008, 11:51 AM
At this point my answer is NO, but if it went down alot more I would raise my dryers back to 5 minutes per quarter. Now they are at 4 minutes per quarter.
MatNapper
07-17-2008, 12:08 PM
I hope it keeps dropping - but it's still 25% more over last year so I would only raise your prices from here. It's still scary long term though. A lot of economists are calling for "mandates" on increased natural gas usage so it's more of a staple energy (clean, relatively cheap - for now); but the more it gets used...
Brett
07-17-2008, 02:19 PM
Watch it every day at Bloomberg.com futures. Down another .79 cents today. Keep going down!!!!
SonomaJoe
07-17-2008, 03:56 PM
I've taken the chart of Nat Gas off the wall from the store /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif
Bizman
07-17-2008, 04:05 PM
I'm thinking of lowering my prices. Since my last increase I've seen a drop in business. Don't know if it's because I'm a new business, I've raised prices to high, if it's the economy or if it's just a summer slow down. Any thoughts?
Duane
07-17-2008, 04:33 PM
Bizman,
When I raise prices some customers will leave for a short time then come back. Therefore I see my gross stay about the same after the price increase, but the net is better. And that is why we do what we do, for the net....
Duane.
epic02
07-17-2008, 04:43 PM
It's most likely a summer slow down, also with the economy the way it is it's making it worse. It always slows down in the summer, Don't panic it's like this every year. If your place is better then your competitors I would keep the prices at what they are, cause more than likely your competitors will soon follow your price and by that time it may be to late because customers will become aware of utility rates dropping, and can get more easily upset. For the customers you lost, How you going to let them know you lowered your prices and how long is it going to take for the word to spread to get them back. Just whether the storm and things will get better.
Kenny
To all, We are in Hurricane season now. All it will take is one up the Gulf side and Nat. Gas will be closer to $20.00 than $10.40ish. I'm not lowering my prices, because I believe that once an increase is implemented it can only be raised again later. Never go backwards in price. Enjoy the short break to help recover some revenue.
Tom
zoomnbyu
07-17-2008, 05:07 PM
I don't think the Gulf hurricanes are going to be much of an issue. I'm in Nebraska and I pretty sure all the hurricane type weather came here this year.
Todd
Todd, Tell me this in November, if one or two come through the Gulf and Nat. Gas is heading towards $15.00+ per contract. Are you kidding?
Tom
G8torlenny
07-17-2008, 09:44 PM
I just heard from my gas rep here in Florida asking me if I want to lock in a rate for 3 or 6 months to avoid the risk of skyrocketing price of a hurricane does show up in the Gulf. Gonna get a per therm quote from her tomorrow and see what it is...
Wildcat
07-17-2008, 10:22 PM
Natural gas and oil prices can't keep going straight up. Unfortunately I think they will still go higher from here. Hopefully we don't get any bad hurricanes in the Gulf. American Coin Op said that some gov agency said natural gas prices are going to be up 65% this year and they project they will be down slightly in 2009. I charge 25 cents/5 minutes and will probably go to 4 1/2 minutes when I get my next gas bill.
Bizman
07-18-2008, 10:33 AM
Thanks Kenny and Duane. Maybe I'll hold off on lowering for now and see what happens.
Bizman
zoomnbyu
07-18-2008, 10:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Todd, Tell me this in November, if one or two come through the Gulf and Nat. Gas is heading towards $15.00+ per contract. Are you kidding?
Tom
[/ QUOTE ]
Tom,
I think you're going to see the slowest hurricane season in the gulf in awhile. The winds that are driving the storms to the midwest, El Nino?, are going to rob that moisture from entering the gulf. Iran might explode, something else might happen but I just don't see it being the gulf this year.
zoomnbyu
07-22-2008, 11:01 AM
Just dropped below $10 a decatherm. Probably won't close there but it's a nice trend.
Brett
07-22-2008, 02:20 PM
Like the trend.. Down Down Down!!!!!!!
petefritz
07-22-2008, 05:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I just heard from my gas rep here in Florida asking me if I want to lock in a rate for 3 or 6 months to avoid the risk of skyrocketing price of a hurricane does show up in the Gulf. Gonna get a per therm quote from her tomorrow and see what it is...
[/ QUOTE ]
they call on the highs? BS considered, should be 90 a therm.
the strips are higher now.
G8torlenny
07-22-2008, 08:13 PM
This is the quote I got fom my gas rep today. It assumes a 70% load or I get this price on 70% of my gas, and the rest is variable. After 3 or 6 months my contract would go back to its original variable cost : $1.21/therm plus all transportation.
Anyone think it is going lower?
It will follow oil, as always. If you go, we go. I'm betting higher. I'm just getting ready to pot up some more investment in Nat. Gas. Just look at the dividend on One Oke Partners (OKS).
Tom
capitolcity
07-23-2008, 09:09 AM
If you lower prices you are making a terrible business and tactical desition. Our industry is still far below the economic inflationary pace, even if a temporary repireve from the skyrocketing energy costs seems like a nice boon.
We should be priced at $10.00 per loan by now, but we aren't because our predecessors refused to raise prices as the times rolled out of the quarter years into the now. The recent spike in gas and oil prices gave us just cause to make major price increases across the board, and finally, nearly every mat owner in America raised prices.
Why would we give up that gain? In fact, the news is still a buzz with tales of rising energy, and the average mat customer isn't following the daily fluctuation of energy futures, so they think its still on the rise. What does that mean? It means KEEP RAISING YOUR PRICES!
I will lead the way. My spins go up $.25 this weekend, and my dry time down 1 second/ quarter.
WHO ELSE IS WITH ME!?!
eeedelli
07-24-2008, 08:17 PM
I would advocate against jumping to conclusions.
As I reported here in another thread a few weeks ago, one of the problems is the increasing strength of the state-owned Russian oil and gas giants.
I hinted, then, of the looming battle to oust BP from Russia and this has now reached the stage where the Chief Exec. of TNK-BP has had to leave the country today following severe harassment and follows a similar tale about all 150 of its technical staff over the last few months. (See <u>here</u> (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7524153.stm).)
The media here is also suggesting that the Russian billionaires who are trying to take control will then 'sell' it to a state-owned company such as GazProm, which now owns virtually all oil and gas in Russia and has, allegedly, been involved in some rather dodgy threatening activities.
As we, here in Europe, know from last winter, when Putin falls out with any of his neighbours, he just switches off the taps, which caused havoc all over Europe last year. It's pretty scary and it means that things are reaching the stage where whatever price they want is the price that we'll have to pay. Despite the fact that he's no longer officially the president, it has to be remembered that he put in place his successor who (surprise!) appointed Putin as his prime minister (i.e. Putin's still really in charge).
This has pretty serious implications for worldwide oil and gas prices in the coming years.
eeedelli, Yes you are absolutly correct. One thing that I might mention, or add to this is that when Putin shut off the gas to Europe the first time, Europe began looking for another supplier of Nat. Gas. Stat Oil Hydro of Norway has just recently completed and placed online their several year project in the Berents Sea. It's a massive under water liquid natural gas port (LNGP) and is the first of it's kind. It is a state of the art facility remote controlled from Stavinger, Norway which is the northern most city in Norway. It delivers nat gas all over the world, including the U.S.
Tom
eeedelli
07-26-2008, 06:54 PM
Yes, that's right. I know we now import quite a bit of LNG into the UK in huge tankers. We also have interconnector pipes to Belgium and possibly to Holland or Norway - not exactly sure - but the snag is that all the central European countries are still reliant on Russia and its huge reserves so there is still a dramatic knock-on effect when the supply gets shut off for political reasons.
Of course, the real snag is that there is more and more demand as countries such as India and China develop and expand while, at the same time, there's a diminishing supply of the stuff.
Our own North Sea natural gas output is falling quite significantly now so we're more exposed than we used to be here in Britain.
We're all going to have to get used to the prices almost continually rising and that means we're going to have to find ways to be more economical with our consumption of gas as time goes on.
zoomnbyu
08-08-2008, 10:23 AM
Some good Friday news. We're down to .84 a therm. The dollar's going up and commodities are coming down. NICE!!!!
Just checked my gas utilities price for August - 92 cents a therm. September should be around 80 cents.
supersuds
08-08-2008, 05:28 PM
Amen - just saw that on cnbc
hopefully it keeps tanking
Adamski
08-09-2008, 08:57 AM
To All:
My prediction for natural gas prices:
Trending higher over the long term with short term fluctuations between the high and low side of the trend curve.
We should plan our vend pricing for the long term trend rather than the short term fluctuations.
Larry /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/cool.gif
supersuds
08-09-2008, 01:13 PM
right on - even the recent valleys are still significantly higher than last summer's pricing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Todd, Tell me this in November, if one or two come through the Gulf and Nat. Gas is heading towards $15.00+ per contract. Are you kidding?
Tom
[/ QUOTE ]
Tom,
I think you're going to see the slowest hurricane season in the gulf in awhile. The winds that are driving the storms to the midwest, El Nino?, are going to rob that moisture from entering the gulf. Iran might explode, something else might happen but I just don't see it being the gulf this year.
[/ QUOTE ]
Todd,
Four named storms in the Gulf, right now. Suspiciously oil, and nat. gas dropped like a brick, along with the rest of the commodities. Good thing we weren't making any profound predictions about these types of things! /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
Tom
zoomnbyu
09-02-2008, 02:53 PM
Their out there but the forecasts aren't for them to have massive damage like Katrina. The set up (temps, moisture, etc..) just isn't there. We're down to 73 cents a therm and probably still dropping as we head into fall!!! Also, at this point only one of the storms is predicted to be heading for the gulf. It sucks for the east coast folks but a cat 4 hitting NC isn't going to raise an energy eyebrow and several cat 3's hitting the gulf aren't going to cause any issues as long as the NG supplies are over the 5 year avg as they are now.
Adamski
09-02-2008, 03:54 PM
Todd,
Yeh, it's a crap shoot when it comes to predicting energy and commodity prices in the near term. So what am I doing today? Buying another $50,000 worth of energy and commodities. Go figure.
Larry /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/cool.gif
zoomnbyu
09-02-2008, 05:38 PM
Our utility just posted monthly rate for September. .87 a therm plus the $16.66 service charge. Can't wait for next month. That's down 36% since the high of $1.38.
petefritz
09-02-2008, 06:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Todd,
Yeh, it's a crap shoot when it comes to predicting energy and commodity prices in the near term. So what am I doing today? Buying another $50,000 worth of energy and commodities. Go figure.
Larry /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/cool.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
I have got long the us$ and short some solar as a wedge, I mean hedge,.. not locking any NG though the 70's have promise if can lock that longer term..