View Full Version : locked NG at 70 cents incl pass thru 1 yr
06-06-2009, 07:48 PM
I normally ride the market at spot, but the divergence in crude vs ng price has me wondering..something has to give..On top of the hurricane season I think 70 cent is not a bad bet for the strip.. I still hold UNG stock ( nat gas futures ETF) was a hedge, now a bet.. I was paying spot plus 5 plus pass thru, another 13-18, so June going off the board at .3538 would be .55-.58 cents anyway. If NG stays low I gain dry revenue, if it goes up I am protected and make money on the bet. What's next?
Pete, I don't know what to tell you. I'm paying .45 per therm, and I can't believe it from a year ago when spot hit $13.50. You are right though, there is a great disparity betwen spot crude and ng. I smell a Rat. Maybe the same thing happening to gold is happening with nat gas. Gold has been being bought up very quietly by the big funds and banks for several months. They are hording it and somehow keeping the spot gold price low. I do know that the ng explorers have developed technology now to get that previously hard to get ng out of abandoned wells and have discovered new huge supplies of it. Maybe it will remain cheap for awhile.
06-07-2009, 08:55 AM
I wish we had competition for NG. Still paying just over $1 per therm...the utility went long at the wrong time and we are all (who use this monopoly) are paying for it.
06-07-2009, 09:00 AM
I think a lot depends on your veiw of what the recovery will look like. Will it be a "V", a "W" or an "L"? Answer that and I can tell you where futures will go. Also Natural gas supply is at a historic high which tends to put downward pressure on pricing. That said I would not lock in gas prices at the store, but I did buy a bunch of UNG recently as well.
If the idiot in chief pushes through more socialism then the economy will die and with it energy prices will tumble further. There is a huge amount of speculation in oil right now, it has just about doubled from its low very very quickly.
07-02-2009, 02:30 PM
With that being said would you lock in at 70 for a year or two? I am attending a seminar later this month to make this decision. Anyone else feel this is an acceptable rate. right now I am at .64
07-02-2009, 06:13 PM
I have absolutely no clue :) It all depends on what the economy does. Gas could be double what it is now next year, or 1/2 of what it is. I guess the answer is based on your tolerance for risk.
My experience is that I am not a futures trader and it just seems to be best to take the spot price -- over time it all averages out just about the same.
The low ng prices are coming at the right time, with summer being my slowest time of the year. My last bill was .365 per therm. It wasn't long ago (January) that I was at 1.25.
07-09-2009, 02:02 AM
One of the factors for me is I have a huge increase in biz in the winter, just about when NG spikes for the cold snaps up north. Right now am in low usage mode, so my thinking was to get good prices when I buy the most. Time will tell. My lock cost me an extra $72 per mat this month. I should also note gas costs is about 35% of the total gas bill...tax tax tax. I really hope energy stays low, it lets our customers spend more money at our mats.
07-16-2009, 10:40 PM
I spent a year or so as a futures trader. Did OK, held my own, but not what I would call a living. So I stopped, luckily right before all of the financial turmoil. Anyway, I frequently used the services of a guy named John Carter. His website is:
No crystal balls there, but they really know what they're talking about and they provide excellent guidance and information to help you.
08-20-2009, 09:08 AM
What are the names of your local NG supplier you all are using. I was told that since our distribution lines are so short we are to have the lowest in the lower 48. From what I read from you all that is not the case. How do you deal with your local supplier?